(24-11-09) Epidemiological perspectives on type 1 diabetes in childhood and adolescence in Germany: 20 years of the DIARY registry.

Ehehalt S, Dietz K, Willasch AM, Neu A; for the DIARY-Group Baden-Wuerttemberg. University Children's Hospital, Tuebingen, Germany. Objective: To predict the frequency of type 1 diabetes in childhood and adolescence (<15 years of age) in Germany for the next 20 years. Research Design and Methods: Data on diabetes onset has been collected by means of a registry in the Federal German state of Baden-Wuerttemberg (documentation period, 1987-2006; n=5,108; completeness of data 98.1%). Results: The current incidence rate (2000-2006) is 19.4/100,000/year (95% CI 18.6-20.2). The annual incidence rate can be expressed as a square of a linear function of the calendar year x (y = (3.05+0.0778*(x-1986))(2), r(2) = 0.90). The highest increase per year was observed in the age groups comprising 2- and 3-year-olds (12% and 13% per year, respectively). The incidence rate for the year 2026 is estimated to be 37.9/100,000/year (95% CI 33.3-42.9). Conclusions: The increase that we found in younger children is characteristic of a left shift towards an earlier age.

Source: Diabetes Care. 2009 Nov 10.

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